Getting rid of cable...

herp derp

Something that you might have missed, Tuckerfan, is that Comcast still has to comply with the net neutrality rules as part of the approval for the NBC purchase. Comcast can't legally throttle Netflix bandwidth, so I think that argument lacks merit.

Wrong. Netflix has been their own CDN for a while now, and had started before the courts threw out the net neutrality requirements. The trigger was the court ruling. Trust me, I've been following this stuff for several years now.

So why did service start to degrade only after the courts threw out the net neutrality rules? What happened that caused the degradation in service?

That deal was put in place years ago (2 years ago, IIRC) and was widely talked about in the industry as being a "bit odd." So, we have to ask ourselves why did Comcast agree to that deal? I don't know, but everybody in the industry was saying that Cogent wouldn't be able to hold up their end, and if I heard it, then you can bet the folks at Comcast and Netflix heard it as well. Yet all parties agreed to it, and things went swimmingly until the courts tossed out net neutrality. If you're not saying, "Well, that seems odd." you're not paying attention to what's going on.

And if the problem had been gradually building up before coming to a head, I'd agree with you. However, in this case, with Netflix being fine and then, right after a court ruling, their service goes to shit, I'm not going to lay all the blame at Cogent's feet.

Yeah, they have to. Their stock price had taken a bit of a dip when it was announced that they were having problems with Comcast. Once Netflix announced they had a deal with Comcast, the stock price shot back up again. That's why I don't necessarily buy Rayburn's statement that "Netflix is very happy with the deal." Netflix may, or may not, be, I don't know. I do know what would happen if Netflix came out and said, "Its a shitty deal, but it was the best we could strike with Comcast under the current circumstances." their stock price would plummet. Reid Hastings isn't going to let that happen, as it'll mean the death of the company.

Very familiar with it. I'm also familiar with the fact that the shareholder statements of Comcast and some of the other largest ISPs show that they are not investing in improving infrastructure. Basically, their attitude is best summed up by what the CEO of Time Warner Cable said recently:

If that doesn't tell you that the people in charge of cable don't get the internet, I don't know what will.

Except that the problem isn't Cogent failing to honor their agreement, the problem is that both Cogent and Comcast committed to an agreement that both of them knew was unworkable.

Nope. Well aware of that, I'm also well aware that the current head of the FCC is a former lobbyist for the cable companies. Do you not see a potential conflict of interest here? Also, Comcast bought NBC nearly 5 years ago, let's take a hypothetical and say that the FCC finds that Comcast is in violation of those net neutrality terms it agreed to, what do you think is going to happen? Do you think that the FCC is going to tell Comcast at this late date, "I'm sorry, you've got to give up NBC."? No, of course, not. They'd simply slap Comcast with a fine (and if its like the fines the Federal government slaps on defense contractors, it'll be low enough that they still make a profit, and they can write it off on their taxes) and move on.

Remember, the BP guys on the Deepwater Horizon telling the Haliburton folks to screw regulations and do shit which directly led to the destruction of the oil platform? You think that only happened once and only in one industry? If so, you've got a lot to learn.

I "cut the cord" back in '08 after I got laid off when the economy hit the shitter, and I've known about "alternative distribution channels" since before Napster hit the mainstream, and as more and more streaming video services have hit the web, I've watched with excitement, since it meant I had more things available to me. One of the things that I've done is follow the network that Leo Laporte is trying to build with Twit.tv. From 2010 to 2013 he had a cord cutter show that I listened to regularly. Episode 4 which hit the web back in November 2010 talks about Comcast planning to block Netflix. This was after Comcast bought NBC and was required to abide by net neutrality rules. If you want to sell me on the idea that Cogent is completely in the wrong here, and that Comcast hasn't been dicks, I'll listen, but you've got a lot of work ahead of you.

herp derp

There are ways in which I could be wrong, but having worked for a telecom, I'm inclined to see them as evil first and foremost.

herp derp

My interpretation is that we can't say who's calling the shots until we see details of the agreement Comcast and Netflix worked out. Again, I go back to the fact that Netflix users did not see a degradation in service until after the court ruling. Why did this happen? Coincidence? Unlikely, but all the necessary data to figure this out exists, but it requires Comcast to release it (which isn't going to happen). Because Comcast doesn't give a fuck.

herp derp

I'm not being obtuse the reports I read all said that the problems didn't start until the ruling.

From your link:

So, the problems started at the same time Verizon was making oral arguments. Coincidence? I don't know, but it seems fishy to me.

Which says nothing about the kind of deal that's been struck. It could be that Netflix bent Comcast over and assraped the hell out of them, or it might be the other way around, and now AT&T and Verizon have decided they want to get a piece of Netflix. I don't know, you don't know, the only people who do know are the lawyers for the companies involved, and they're not talking.

You do know that tin foil hats don't actually work, right?

herp derp

I don't know. The other ISPs don't really have an incentive to care if Cox does better than they do, because most people don't have the option of switching to Cox. Why did they wait so long before deciding to talk to Netflix and then start talking to them right after the net neutrality ruling? I don't know. I do know that I'm not jumping to any conclusions about this being a good or bad deal for Netflix because we don't have the information. Based on things I know about the industry (from having worked in it), I'm not inclined to believe that this is a good deal for Netflix in the long term, but I could be wrong. If Netflix raises its rates in a few months, does that mean they have to pay out a bunch of money to Comcast? I don't know. Netflix might be open in stating what the reason would be, but they might also throw out some vaguely worded comments which don't really explain anything.

Again, the answer isn't going to be found in the data that Netflix publishes (though it does help). The data exists in what Comcast has, and they're not putting theirs out.

herp derp

Any your evidence for this is what, exactly? I want real dollar figures sourced from the parties involved, not guesses.

Actually, they could, but Comcast didn't want it without getting more money from Cogent, which Cogent refused to pay.

And the dollar figures on this are?

Nothing is inevitable except the heat death of the universe.

herp derp

Not necessarily. Its indicative that Netflix either sees an advantage or has no other choice. It doesn't tell us any more than that. This could be one of those things which is more expensive in the short run, but works out to be cheaper in the long run, or any of a number of possibilities. Trying to guess what this means and where its headed is sort of like someone in 1849 trying to peg what that newfangled telegraph thing is going to lead to.

Its a good question. Its possible that Netflix is keeping their mouth shut because they don't want Cogent fucking up their shit before they can work out deals with the ISPs. Maybe Reed Hastings has been privately berating the shit out of Cogent's CEO. We don't know, and we're unlikely to know.

That's not a dollar figure, that's an assumption on your part.

Nobody knows when they're going to die, and if you've got a good accountant, the amount of taxes you pay always goes down.

herp derp

Again, this is mostly speculation on your part because we do not know the details of the agreement Netflix has signed with Comcast. Saying, "Netflix is only going to sign a deal that lowers their costs and benefits them, while screwing the other guy" has as much weight as saying, "Comcast is only going to sign a deal that lowers their costs and benefits them, while screwing them." (That's how businesses operate.) Without knowing the details of the agreement, we are all guessing. (Think Comcast is going to publicly admit they got shafted? Nope. Think Netflix will admit if they got shafted? Nope.) And even if Netflix did win, that doesn't mean the cable companies are going to take it lying down, they will attempt to stab back. iTunes was supposed to kill the record labels. They're not dead yet.

Until you can come up with the actual cost figures from both parties as to what they're paying, you're not going to be able to convince me that this was a good or bad deal for anyone. I get what you're saying, but I know enough about how business works to know that everything is meaningless until you see the actual dollar figures (and you'd damned well better check those, because they're most likely "tweaked" in some manner).

herp derp

And that's nice, but it doesn't tell the whole story, and it certainly doesn't put a dollar figure to anything.

Actually, it often is, especially in areas where one is missing crucial details. Netflix and Comcast don't get paid by the bit or charge by the bit.

And so were lots of one's held up by the folks saying that the invasion of Iraq would only cost $20 billion or so. We saw how well that turned out. We have an incomplete picture, and the most important element, dollar amounts is missing, without that, we're only guessing. Presumably, these costs will be listed in the shareholders reports that Netflix and Comcast publish. To get an accurate idea of what's going on, the numbers from both reports will have to be compared with one another. (Because both companies are going to spin them in order to give the impression that they came out on top, so the truth will lie somewhere in between most likely.)

There are people who claim that Netflix's attempt at launching Qikster (or whatever it was going to be called, the DVD only version of Netflix) was actually a ploy by Netflix to get people to dump the DVD plans and sign up for streaming. Its possible, but it was a helluva gamble while it was going on, because Netflix's stock plunged, subscribers canceled, and both the tech press as well as the financial sector press was saying that Netflix's days were numbered. Reed Hastings very easily could have been ousted by the board and replaced by someone else, or if the economy had shifted downwards, Netflix might have lost enough subscribers that it was no longer possible. Given that there are lots of less risky ways of easing your customers off of the mail service, I have a hard time believing that the whole thing was a feint. (Especially since Hasting's responses to the early complaints weren't very PR savvy. The man's smart enough to manage his PR better than that.) Of course, I don't really know, and neither does anyone else outside of the board of directors, we're all just speculating and interpretation based on public events. It doesn't mean we've got it right, and we're better served by remembering the possibility that we could have figured wrong, than patting ourselves on the back and telling ourselves we're very clever indeed.

herp derp

I am being objective. What I'm not doing is saying that this means Comcast got bent over by Netflix or that Netflix got bent over by Comcast. We simply lack the necessary information.

In the wake of the Columbia disaster, the investigators found that many of the charts and graphs NASA had been using up to that point were misleading. Not because the data in them was wrong or had been manipulated, but because the limitations of charts and graphs couldn't tell the full story (there's simply no way to make such a chart), and that the larger missing context actually led to the Columbia disaster.

Knowing the bandwidth levels tells us only one part. Its sort of like walking into a room, seeing a dead body on the floor, noticing that there's a gun in the body's hand and declaring it to be a suicide. It might be a suicide, but without a closer examination of the body, we can't say for sure. Perhaps it was murder, perhaps somebody shot the dead person in self-defense, maybe it was a suicide, but until we check the body out, examine the room, talk with people that knew the deceased, and other things, its premature to call it a suicide.

herp derp

I'm done here. I've made my position clear that I don't believe its possible to know exactly what happened without a look at the financials, and I don't know of any way I can be any clearer on that subject than I already have been. Believe whatever you want, I don't care. In the meantime this hijack needs to end.

herp derp

As in individuals, not corporations.

In a manner not available to any of us.

Read the OP.

I assigned no responsibility to anyone, however, unless you've something to add to this thread in line with the OP then I suggest you either start a new thread dedicated to the subject of the Comcast/Netflix agreement or just forget about it. If you don't like it, take it up with Anc or one of the Admins, because I will issue warnings to anybody who posts to this thread on something other than advising people on how to ditch cable. I didn't want to do this, but since you want to keep rehashing the same points over and over again, even after I stated that the topic needs to be dropped, I'm doing it. I'm not picking on you, if anybody restarts the discussion over the deal on Comcast/Netflix in this thread they're getting warned. Understand?

Um, what just happened here? Has Wordforge ever been anti-derailment?

Yeah, it has when its not been in the Red Room. We're in Techforge and since the subject had drifted away from the OP without contributing anything meaningful, I decided that the matter needed to be dropped. Steve didn't take the hints, so I got firm.

herp derp