"The 1980's are calling to ask for their foreign policy back."

All that said…

North Korean troops resume fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, Zelensky says

Trump's talk of Greenland is forcing new issues - on Swedish nuclear weapons

Seems at least one Swede is thinking that if the US is unreliable, maybe they should get their own nukes to keep the Russians out.

Russia strikes Ukraine's energy grid, forcing emergency shutdowns

Trump Says Putin Agreed to Negotiations for Ending Ukraine War as U.S. Releases Cybercriminal

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...news?page=with:block-67b1d3948f085b5f5c28d68d

As we go to a seperate summit with Rusdia in Saudi Arabia.
On one side, all of NATO and the country that's been unjustly invaded.
On the other, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the USA.
I wonder how history will view that.

https://archive.is/CcTXJ

We're past the point of no return on this front. The Russians are sending 1950's vintage T-55 tanks, WWII era towed artillery pieces and transport trucks and civilian cars to fill the gaps. The artillery shells the North Koreans gave them are exploding in the barrels of the artillery pieces that are firing them, the North Korean soldiers Kim sent are either surrendering, being cut to pieces in human wave attacks over open ground, or accidentally killing Russian and Chechen soldiers because of the language barrier. Bottom line, the Russians are not going to be able to fight for much longer.

That seems like wishful thinking. Historical precedent suggests they could keep grinding away for years to come.

What people seem to have lost sight of, is that this is Russia, not the Soviet Union. They don't have the manpower or resources they once had, and are fighting the war as if they still did. There has been a lot of work done monitoring the various depots the Russians store their weapons, and they're almost all empty now. There are a couple of reputable twitter accounts that make a visual confirmation of how many vehicles and equipment of all types have been lost by the Russians thus far, and the tank losses alone are around 4000. That's not including what's yet to be counted, they're actually backed up in that regard. Historical precedent is no longer valid, this is a different game being played altogether.

Desperation breeds innovation, if they want to keep fighting they will find ways to.

Good that peace talks are happening today. Disgraceful that Ukraine is being shut out of them.

They aren't truly peace talks, they're a combination of negotiations over the control of Ukraine's resources, and an effort to place responsibility on Europe on the peace with no US support, which is why neither Ukraine or Europe are getting a voice.

Zelensky has already rejected effectively mortgaging Ukraines future so the US and Russia can divvy it up, so Trump is going to apply more pressure to get them to do so. They'll be a US satellite, so relatively safe from Russian attacks, but will still be expected to pay back the lend/lease whilst US companies will extract most of the profits from the mineral wealth, leaving chump change to Ukraine itself.

In his boots I'd be on the phone to Beijing to get a better deal, if they can place naval bases in the Black Sea and have military bases at Europes leading edge, they'll give him an good deal and make Putin sit and beg, and Trump may come back with a counter offer.

This isn't diplomacy any more, it's Yojimbo now.

Europe also has a choice now, militarise or risk Russian incursions with no US support for the foreseeable. Putin doesn't even need to do much, years of centre-right parties failing to apply brakes to the political drift leftwards has left the political class to the left of their populations, meaning ever further right parties are becoming relevant, he can just take advantage of their naivety and cause chaos, and so find plenty of mush to push.

You know Trump is right about one thing. Paper straws are an abomination.

But if he's right about one thing, it makes me wonder about another thing - is Europe's defense strategy really "America will save us"? At times, based on the reactions in Europe, it really does seem that way. As if Europe wasn't aware Russia was next door.

It has partly been that. But the US has also been quite forward in its views about Europe trying to establish its own joint armed forces outside NATO's remit.

More that the US made it very clear it would be maintaining its military power either way, so any European buildup wouldn't replace the US, and centuries of European warfare meant that the latter half of the 20th century was dominated with desires to cooperate more peacefully.

And on the same day the US (shockingly) says they'd be willing to lift sanctions on Russia, the EU is voting to impose even more.
Patrick Stewart at one point said that Brexit would be more disastrous long term than a Trump presidency, because Trump has an end date. But I no longer agree with him. We're pushing Britain back closer to the EU, and we're alternating pretty much every European ally we have. And if we continue to do things like threaten to invade our allies, or capitulate to Russia, or God forbid go through with the forced migration of the Palestinians, how long will countries like Japan and Korea have our backs either?

We are becoming a completely isolated and untrustworthy nation.

This! The US is pushing isolationist policies while still wanting to control everyone else and we're clearly ready to burn the bridges of long held allies like Canada in the process.

I can’t find it and I think it was Tom Nichols who said it (or something like it).

These crazies have convinced themselves that God has chosen the US to rule the world that they gleefully ripping out the wiring to our Dominate the World button we spent a century putting together just to sell the copper.

Honestly, at this point I'm okay with us not dominating the world.

From all the reports coming out it's now super clear that the US/Russia talks aren't about how to end the conflict at all, but are about how the US and Russia can normalize their relations.

What I expect at this point is that the US and Russia will come out with a "peace agreement" and when Ukraine and Europe say no fucking way to it Trump will use it as justification to end all Ukraine support and lift sanctions on Russia, saying that Ukraine is the one keeping the fight going.

My read as well. Throw in US oil firms replacing all the European ones that left.

Not sure you’ll like who replaces us.

Now keep in mind it was mostly built on soft, not hard power. And even our hard power was mostly coordination and supply.

Look at the Somali pirates situation. Vast majority of the task force was other countries contributing their ships. It is just that no one else has the ability to coordinate at such a high level like the US can.

Re: UK possibly sending two brigades as peacekeepers:

https://bsky.app/profile/seasouthern.bsky.social/post/3liilzll5w22n

The Trump foreign policy isn't actually isolationist. It's just 100% committed to the idea that we should only try to harm people and never try to help them.

Coincidentally, that describes the Trump domestic policy too.

This. He‘s already effectively blaming Ukraine for the war, saying they should never have allowed it to happen and should have negotiated instead. Un-fucking-believable.

Trump saying the quiets parts out loud again. Ukraine could have made a deal earlier. Ukraine is at fault for the war. On top of his stuff about wanting to grab the countries assets. (Most of those are in Russian-held territory, which puts an interesting spin on why Zelensky was not invited.)

LOL at the tantrums of the European leadership. They will fall into line behind the US like the toadies that they are. The UK barely has an army right now, and are in no position to fund one so what the fuck is Starmer doing by acting the hardman talking about UK troops in Ukraine?
And (much as I supported them at the time) sanctions turned out to be completely counterproductive even when they have US buy-in so how is this new round going to achieve anything?

Whilst @matthunter and @Bailey are correct that the US was not interested in a multinational European military, individual nations were not stopped from taking their defence seriously, nor have their militaries as low hanging fruit for cuts, so, yes, there was a lot of outsourcing of defence to the US. And it's not like Europe hasn't had months to come up with something, it's not like Trump hid his views last time around, this has been coming since he won.

Jeriko's 'euroweenies' wasn't too far from the truth, geopolitically Western Europe are navel gazers, with just the UK and France heavily outward looking.

And Trump is usually worth listening to - yes, he's a pathological liar, yes, he's an obnoxious bully, and, yes, he changes his mind like a toddler with ADHD. But he gives unfiltered views into his fucked up mindset, which is transactional, materialistic, and unable to process ephemeral value over objective cost. Just don't necessarily act upon his words without doing some due diligence.

His rant to Germany about dependency on Russian energy last time around, was actually incisive because of that, and the Germans laughed all the way to an economic disaster.

As to a European defence force, well, Bailey isn't quite correct on EU nations being co-operative - London is still the Euro clearing house because France and Germany don't want the other to have it, and many other examples of internal power struggles exist - so that would have to get over any number of political walls. Reality dictates France would lead on it, but this is the EU, they'd still be arguing over the minutiae whilst Russian troops were loading their tanks with Parisian's washing machines, unfurling the Russian flag over the Eiffel Tower, and Putin ambling out of the Louvre with the Mona Lisa to take back to the Kremlin.

I wouldn't say the sanctions have been counterproductive, the Russian economy is wrecked - Nabiullina has proven herself highly adept, but running a war economy is all that is keeping it upright, and the costs of acquiring items via third parties has fed into their inflation rates, profit margins from exports have slimmed, and they're no longer an attractive destination for the mass waves of immigration they need to fill jobs.

Hopefully you're wrong about the Europeans, but they never seem to understand how to deal with other cultures. Take the demand about no NATO forces in Ukraine, fine, we'll hand them a nuclear deterrent then, Russia will then come back with a "no, but you can have NATO peacekeepers." Russians look for weakness, sadly they find it in abundance across Europe.