Trump: I hope [the economy] crashes in the next 12 months

“We have an economy that’s so fragile, and the only reason it’s running now is it’s running off the fumes of what we did,” Trump said. “It’s just running off the fumes.”

Trump added: “And when there’s a crash — I hope it’s going to be during this next 12 months because I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover. The one president I just don’t want to be, Herbert Hoover.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4396467-trump-says-he-hopes-economy-crashes-in-next-12-months-i-dont-want-to-be-herbert-hoover/

American First!!!1!

So he saying Hoover sucked?

I don't get it. These kind of jokes can't exist in a vacuum.

That blows.

He already was Hoover!

But did he swallow?

He’s been swallowing his own bullshit for quite a while

More of a Nero, really, since Trump lit/fanned the fire himself and then did nothing about it.

He ignored COVID until the stock market tanked. I also haven’t forgotten that he, unlike Hoover, seems to think that because a state didn’t give him electoral votes, no one voted for him there. So he threatened to withhold aid to fire victims in my state, and those fires were in areas where he had strong support.

I'm thinking more in terms of one big fire, and Trump's comments on Mexican immigrants as an example of fanning the flames.

How his supporters overlook that is beyond my comprehension.

We really need a *groan* smiley.

They don’t overlook it: they revel in it

Well, he's wrong about the fumes. But the existing economy absolutely is unstable, it is just a matter of time before there is such a crash and the regulatory decisions of the Trump administration as much as anything else will be responsible.

Honestly, is anyone shocked by this narcissistic orange asshat? He hopes that you lose your job so he can blame Biden and win an election. Yes, YOU.
I’m not sure he has any supporters left here on WF, but I’m curious as to what @Steal Your Face thinks about this.

What’s unstable about it?

Keep in mind that prior to the Trump-COVID Recession the US had experienced its longest expansionary period IN HISTORY.

How long have you got? This is a problem that goes back 40 years. Look at the frequency of financial crises before the neoliberal era started and afterwards. It's just a regular thing to be expected in this system and there are certainly more to come, big and small.

None of the problems that caused the 2008 crash have been properly sorted. The limited (and insufficient) Dodd-Frank legislation that was put in place to mitigate against the risks of casino banking was partially repealed by the Trump Administration.

Then there's the fact that since 2008 investment in the real economy has been stalling. Central bank money has been keeping things going and has had the corollary of providing cash for share buy-backs to inflate asset prices instead. So there are potential for bubbles to form (and therefore to burst) in any number of sectors. Big tech was exposed recently as soon as inflation pushed interest rates up, seeing as none of those companies ever actually make any money. External shocks could tip things over at any time.

Trump is being a dick but this is a major structural issue, not a partisan one.

Again, you seem to be behind the times.

As I just pointed out we just witnessed the largest expansionary period in our history. The business cycles are lengthening not shortening.

As to investment in the real economy stalling what the fuck are you smoking?

We are in the largest manufacturing construction boom in the last half a century!





I think you need to update your talking points.

Oh so he's just like @Steal Your Face

Only without the latter's wit, charm and intellect.

If Trump believes that the economy will crash, then he is beginning from the premise that the economy is good.

If we were living in American Carnage, if everything were terrible, if Real Americans were being punished and destroyed by Joe Biden’s economy, then it could not “crash.” We’d be at lowest-low.

Likewise, if the economy was only so-so, then there wouldn’t be room for a “crash.” Maybe a slowdown. Maybe a correction. But not a “crash.”

An economy can only “crash” from a place of high performance. And Donald Trump is saying that a crash is coming.

Which is the same thing as Donald Trump admitting that Joe Biden’s economy is quite good.

Raise your hand if you think Trump voters experience any cognitive dissonance on this point...

These things are completely irrelevant to what I pointed out. The stability of the financial system is not a function of economic growth.

However, they are also incorrect. The pre-COVID period was not the largest expansionary period in your history. Apart from the fact that growth levels were actually quite low, it lasted for around 10 years. There were booms that were both longer and larger in the 1960s (ending with the oil crisis) and the 1990s-2000s (ending with the financial crisis.)

I'll give you that Bidenomics has changed the picture somewhat in some sectors. But the manufacturing construction boom is driven to a certain degree by government spending and subsidy, and the issues remain in the rest of the economy.

I’m sorry but you are just wrong. It is a simple fact that at 127 months the July 2009 to January 2020 Obama expansion was 7 months longer than the March 1991 to March 2001 expansion which was until then the largest expansionary period in US history.

It’s just a fact.

I deserve that.

There was not a technical recession in 2001. Look it up. But it's academic since it's irrelevant to the point I made.

Feel free to argue with the Fed Billy.

It's certainly possible to believe in good faith that the economy sucks compared to where it should be or would have been if X/Y/Z had happened, so it's not exactly good now. And it's certainly possible to believe even if we were in a full-fledged recession (which we objectively are not) that there could be a crash that would take us into an actual depression.

Yeah, they categorise it as a recession. I'm not sure why, since it didn't meet the technical definition - two successive quarters of negative growth. See below. Like I've said, it's academic anyway. That growth happens does not obviate the existence of casino banking and the instabilities that brings.

@Bailey you got this one?

Anyway the fact that the two longest growth cycles in US history have occurred in the last three cycles tends to point to increasing stability not decreasing.

Fun fact. Before the Federal Reserve Era the US had not experienced five years without a recession.

That's not how risk works unfortunately.

There were effectively zero banking crises from the end of World War II until the 1970s. (And despite some recessions, the average rate of growth was higher.)

Since casino banking was let loose as part of the neoliberal reordering of things, there have been crises in the US financial sector of various sizes in:
1989: Savings & Loans
1990: Rhode Island Banking Crisis
1994: Bond Market Crisis
2000: Dot com bubble
2008: Subprime lending.
2023: Tech banking

And that's not getting into the many similar events in other economies.

Not all of these led to a general economic crash but they all threatened to, and would have in many cases were it not for intervention. The risk is an ever-present feature of how the economy is structured, which is why Trump is talking about it, albeit in his usual stupid way.