Greek banks closed, capital controls in place.

One quarter of growth that's mediocre at best for an economy recovering from a second Great Depression following seven years of austerity shitting the bed is not "turning the corner." It's not a sign that austerity is beginning to work. It's not an indication of sustainability. It's just one quarter of economic growth that's mediocre and inadequate under the circumstances.

Mostly I'd guess that it means that Spain's an oil importer, not an oil exporter, and is in sufficiently better shape than Greece for the current lull in oil prices to be a bit of an economic boon.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wire...5-economy-growth-forecast-33-percent-32180548

They should come in at 3.3% annual growth for 2015 which is pretty good for old Europe. Liberalization seems to have worked in restoring growth. It is a shame the Greeks have spent the last half decade refusing to liberalize their economy. If they had they would probably be growing again by now too.

Exclusive: Europeans tried to block IMF debt report on Greece: sources

Euro zone countries tried in vain to stop the IMF publishing a gloomy analysis of Greece's debt burden which the leftist government says vindicates its call to voters to reject bailout terms, sources familiar with the situation said on Friday.

The document released in Washington on Thursday said Greece's public finances will not be sustainable without substantial debt relief, possibly including write-offs by European partners of loans guaranteed by taxpayers.

It also said Greece will need at least 50 billion euros in additional aid over the next three years to keep itself afloat.

Publication of the draft Debt Sustainability Analysis laid bare a dispute between Brussels and the Washington-based global lender that has been simmering behind closed doors for months.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras cited the report in a televised appeal to voters on Friday to say 'No' to the proposed austerity terms, which have anyway expired since talks broke down and Athens defaulted on an IMF loan this week.

. . . .

At a meeting on the International Monetary Fund's board on Wednesday, European members questioned the timing of the report which IMF management proposed at short notice releasing three days before Sunday's crucial referendum that may determine the country's future in the euro zone, the sources said.

There was no vote but the Europeans were heavily outnumbered and the United States, the strongest voice in the IMF, was in favor of publication, the sources said.

. . . .

"It wasn't an easy decision," an IMF source involved in the debate over publication said. "We are not living in an ivory tower here. But the EU has to understand that not everything can be decided based on their own imperatives."

The board had considered all arguments, including the risk that the document would be politicized, but the prevailing view was that all the evidence and figures should be laid out transparently before the referendum.

"Facts are stubborn. You can't hide the facts because they may be exploited," the IMF source said.

----------------
More at the link. This is seriously bad behavior by the Eurozone actors. The main point of the report is that it's immensely relevant to a decision about how to vote on the upcoming referendum. If the report had been withheld until after the referendum and the result of the referendum came back "yes," I can only imagine the anger and chaos that would have ensued. It surely would have been a complete disaster.

So, its starting to look like the "No" side has it?

Yep.

http://a.msn.com/r/2/AAczLKj?a=1&m=en-us

I would likely have voted no, were I Greek.

If it does nothing else, the No vote will further expose the EU elites s the anti-democratic cunts that they are.

(Source)

The timing was crap though - the referendum should've been held months back, preferably right after the election, so that the stakes weren't so high. The No vote means Greece will be pushed out of the EuroZone, and that we will have a failing nation on the continent with Russia and China in the wings preparing to cause trouble.

And I'm entirely unconvinced the EU will be able to handle the resulting humanitarian crisis.

If I was Obama, right now I'd be preparing one hell of a care package in exchange for century-long leaseholds on some Greek islands, handling the refugees and a whole raft of economic measures designed to stick it to the EU and frustrate Chinese and Russian expansion into the Med. It's pretty obvious Europe isn't quite ready for letting go off Uncle Sam's hand, which is just fucking embarrassing.

I am not so sure of that yet. I'd place modest bets against it.

It is best for everyone with Greece out. They are in many ways a 3rd world country trying to pretend it is a 1st world country and all the development aid from the EU over the last few decades couldn't change the culture of corruption and tax fraud. There was the shiny facade of new freeways paid for by Germans but the culture was still that of a 3rd world cesspool.

The EU has very much put it cards on the table, at this point anything other than as a consequence of a Not vote will be seen as a climbdown, and one that'll be ruthlessly used by other anti-austerity parties and current opposition parties in EU nations.

The problem with international dick-measuring contests is all your claims are tested, so if you've said you've a 12" dong, you better have a 12" dong.

Also, looks like Greek banks have maybe, maybe, a weeks worth of cash reserves. And the No vote has a good chance of the ECB deciding game over. Without the ECB putting the tap back on, they'll have a full-on banking crisis this week with their banks being insolvent.

That is definitely the version of the EU the German government would like everyone to believe in. But mentioning the anti-austerity fractions within all of Europe showcases that this is not monolithic.

Good. They deserve it. They were too stupid to save themselves by making the needed reforms so now the only purpose they serve is to be a warning to others about what happens if you are as stupid as a Greek.

It is going to be ugly too. But maybe that will get the Spaniards and Italians to not want to go down the same road of self destruction the Greeks did.

I concur that the referendum was ill-timed and won't really achieve much. But there's no mechanism for the Greeks to be forced to leave. They'd have to decide to do so themselves.

(Of course, if their banks remain closed they might have little choice.)

And that reminds me of a good piece that I read in todays paper about the role of the ECB in this.
The ECB are supposed to be responsible for ensuring banking stability. Forcing banks (all of which they declared solvent a year ago) to close because of a political crisis is a contemptible violation of that responsibility, and is also completely at odds with the resolution of the EU five years ago to break the toxic link between banks and sovereigns.

There are legal options open to Greece on that front, and on others, in response to the various mandate-stretching interventions which European figures have made over the last couple of weeks.

Omnishambles, it is.

The ECB just stops backing Greek banks and refuses to deliver currency. Eventually Greeks are going to get tired of the cash shortage and agree to go.

It is the only play they have. They are going to have sky high inflation and 40% unemployment with everyone who can leaving the country but as they have been unwilling to reform this is their only option.

Interestingly, there have now been some comments about a "humanitarian aid package", which might be a shift in stance from Schauble et al. Or alternatively might be an attempt to undermine the Syriza government by putting money into Greece through a channel not controlled by them.

61.5 v 38.5.

Wow, a 25 point victory for the 'no's, that wasn't even close.

@RickDeckard

No, it is most likely just an acknowledgementioned that shit will now get a lot worse in Greece. They are hoping to convince some of them to stay in Greece instead of flooding west.

Precisely this. We did it for Mexico, which of course is a far more important country to the US economy. But Greece is strategically important, and Europe completely blew it. The States will have to step in once again.

Wow, Rick came up with a retarded conspiracy theory ("Humanitarian aid is a secret fifth column!") but for applying Occum's razor and pointing out a much simpler explination... Rick rates my post as dumb?

You are one of a kind, Rick.

How so? Russia is broke and can't afford to support the backwards dead beat Greeks while China genuinely doesn't care about over seas military expansion. They are concentrating all of their military efforts on their border regions.

That's a pretty ignorant statement. Russia finds money when it leads to military gain. And China is all over Africa and South America. I'm pretty sure they'd love a foothold in the eastern Mediterranean.

@Dinner, how much time have you spent in New Mexico?

Commercially, China is investing in those places. Militarially? Not so much. As for Russia, Putin is still dealing with an sharp economic recession and high inflation at home. His primary concern is the Ukraine and he probably doesn't want to anger the west even more as he would really like to talk the EU into ending sanctions.

Now that the Greeks have signed their suicide note it will be interesting to see how this plays out. It won't be good, I do know that.

@Dinner never been to NM?

Last time I was in New Mexico was around 1990. Family road trip vacation.

Why do you ask?

What'd you think of it?

Housing prices are about 1/8th of that in Cali. Have you considered moving?

Can't say that I have. I am not really a desert person at heart. Plus isn't it hot there? I am a delicate little flower who needs the temperature just so.